The Sahm Rule Is Starting to Flash Yellow

A popular recession indicator has crept into uncomfortable territory

Yesterday, I made a passing reference to a “jaunty” labor market and immediately began to regret my choice of words. As my old mentor, John Lonski, points out in his excellent post today, job growth is not quite as robust as many would have it.

Common wisdom acknowledges that labor market indicators have slowed in recent months but still looks at the cu…